4th Place and the Champions League

Purely because I'm immensely bored and find myself sitting in the library at half past 5 on a Saturday evening railing my weekend accumulator, I want to talk football!

This season has been pretty immense and as it draws to its close, wherever you look in the table you can see fierce battles being fought. I'm just posting what I think will happen, sort of a little bet with myself I guess (or any potential readers), which will make it that much more interesting if it needs to be!

Firstly, I think the relegation battle will stay as it is, position-wise. Portsmouth was a massive game for Hull today and coming away with nothing massively dents their survival hopes imo. I full expect, Burnley and Portsmouth to go down and after the manner of defeat at Fratton Park, I think its very likely that Hull will now join them.

Turning to the title, well, its pretty open and pretty daunting to try and pick anyone! On the one hand Arsenal have an easy run-in but they are the world's best at crumbling under pressure and how many of their youngsters could have one eye on a massive quarter-final tie with Barcelona? I think they are too inexperienced and need to put all their eggs in one basket, as Chelsea have been forced to do. Utd are born and bred competitors and when you have Rooney leading the line, who would bet against them? They have a candid ability to grind out the results need right at the death to win the title - as we saw last year. That said, I favour Chelsea. A month ago I was saying Utd but the impact of the Champs League exit, I think, can be positive for Chelsea. They have vast amounts of experience all over the team, great leaders and a great ability. Drogba seems to have tailed off of late and maybe they are tiring a little as they don't seem to have the quality in depth any more. However, Ancelloti is a pedigree in himself and with the inner tussles, management-wise, to add to that, I don't believe he will let his side throw the opportunity before them away. A lot of course will be decided in the Utd v Chelsea game but I'll pip Chelsea to take it, marginally. It will go to the wire however.

Now, to the much-coveted fourth spot and that final Champions League qualification spot. As has become apparent from previous posts, I'm a Liverpool fan so there may be an element of bias but I have legitimately tried to keep it to a minimum or eradicate it entirely! For this call I've analysed the fixtures of the remaining teams, which I will post below in a minute. Firstly, Villa will have taken a knock to their confidence today and I don't think they are mature enough, despite being guided by the capable Martin O'Neill, to come back from that. Again, the Carling Cup final loss will have hurt and I think a lot of them will be looking to rectify that in the FA cup - for the youngsters and a relatively "average" team, a trophy and a final appearance will mean more. Lets be honest, Villa in the Champs League - I don't think so. Tottenham are in pole position and under Redknapp anything can happen; its just a question of whether they can keep their nerve and get something from some big big games they have in the run-in. City are such an odd team, on their day they're great, as we saw against Chelsea but again, I don't think they have many leaders (even in a managerial role) who can stand up and be counted, take the bull by the horns and just go out there. Given, Tevez and Bellamy have real character but I don't see anyone in the midfield or defence who is just going to ring the team by its neck in the final few games and they are the areas that arguably need such character. Liverpool, again, a team of two halves and a season of many proportions. I have zero faith in Rafa's ability and have had that opinion for a long time; even before we came close to the title last year. However, as Lucas alluded to against Lille - Gerrard has that leadership quality and others in the team relish that and improve as a result. We arguably have the easiest run-in, looking at the games as a whole and we are on the back of a decent run, also buoyed, perhaps, by a quarter-final. However, this happened a few weeks back and it came to a crashing halt so its whether or not they can maintain it. Internally I think there is a massive amount of pressure on the lads' shoulders also, the importance of fourth spot is far greater to Liverpool then any others in the race imo. Whether the likes of Insua, Maxi, Babel and Lucas can cope with that remains to be seen. Anyway the fixtures:

Villa:

Home games - Sunderland, Everton, Birmingham and Blackburn
Away - Chelsea, Bolton, Portsmouth, Hull, Man City

I anticipate them getting 15 points from a potential 27, leaving them on a total of 65 points. They will drop points against City and Chelsea whilst drawing with Bolton, Blackburn and Everton. They are unbeaten in 2010 but have drawn 6/10, they struggle to break down stubborn teams and they are too focused on an FA cup. Like last year, they will fade and today didn't help that.

City:

Home - Wigan, B'ham, Utd, Villa, Spurs
Away - Fulham, Everton, Burnley, Arsenal, West Ham

They will get 18 points from a potential 30. I don't believe they will get anything from the Arsenal or Utd games, they have far greater achievements to be playing for. I also think they will draw their next two games, away against Fulham (buoyed after the Juve win) and Everton, who are ending the season in great form and not fighting on any other front. They may well share the points with Tottenham also and indeed, that game could prove to be pivotal.

Tottenham:

Home - Portsmouth, Arsenal, Chelsea, Bolton
Away - Sunderland, Utd, Man City, Burnley

I think they will take 13 points from a possible 24. Again, I think they have the hardest run-in and I just don't see how they will get anything from the Arsenal, Utd and Chelsea games. The City game could prove pivotal to them, as all the others are straight-forward, or should be.

Liverpool:

Home - Sunderland, Fulham, West Ham, Chelsea
Away - Utd, B'ham, Burnley, Hull

I think they will get 18 points from a possible 24. As we have seen with Liverpool over the last couple of seasons, they have an exceptional ability to cock up. That run-in, bar the two obvious games, should be producing maximum points and that could luckily propel us to fourth but who knows? I'm being conservative and going with my thinking with the other three contenders - that being, we will drop maximum points against Utd away and Chelsea at home. Based on my analysis I think that is probably likely. I wouldn't be surprised however if we nick something from both games but I wouldn't bet on it. We seem pumped for the Utd games recently but after playing on Monday and Thursday - where we did look tired, I just can't see coming away from Old Trafford with anything. Chelsea at home is probably our best bet there but again, they will really want the title.

Based on that I think it will finish like this:

4th - Liverpool, 69 points
5th - Tottenham, 68 points and a superior goal difference to:
6th - City, 68 points
7th - Villa, 67 points


As I say, this was done out of pure boredom but if anyone fancies a flutter I would be happy to oblige! This should make it an even more entertaining final 8/9 games also! Epic if I am bang on.......

Anyway, finish off this last bit of work, then home to get on ze grind!